Forecasts

Time-bounded claims frozen at issuance. A warning’s live rung can move during the window; the scored card does not. Resolution is binary on the warned outcome inside the window.

Kyle 2026-09-23: W7 is the first real-world test of GUARDIAN STAR predictive capabilities. A miss at window close is a process failure, not “likely misses sometimes.” Miss → retool (after-action and framework changes in the same turn), not a log line and a lowered rung.

Open a card when a warning is issued at likely or higher with a window of 30 days or less, or when Kyle marks a call as scored.

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Open

F1 — W7 US diesel export embargo inside 30 days

Frozen: 2026-09-23 Claim: The US administration imposes a full or partial ban, embargo, or equivalent export restriction on diesel fuel by proclamation, IEEPA / DOE / Commerce order, or a completed floor vote (W7 warned outcome / W7-I4) on or before 2026-10-23. Issued likelihood: likely, moderate confidence Source of the call: FO Early Warning 23 Sep (R.C.), adopted as W7 Window: 2026-09-23 through 2026-10-23, America/Los_Angeles (FO 23 Sep: “likely within the next 30 days”; WARNINGS.md window). Hit: W7-I4 fires inside the window. Resolve immediately; do not wait for close. No retool from this test. Miss: 2026-10-23 ends without I4. Congressional calls, cabinet studies, the president’s urging, voluntary refiner cuts, SPR / heating-oil actions, and a gasoline-only restriction are not a hit. On miss (Kyle 2026-09-23): retool prediction frameworks. Apply W7-D3. Do not treat as within-error-bar. Write the after-action and the framework changes in the same turn (skill: scored-forecast resolution). Status: open Resolution job: cron W7/F1 window close (job id omitted), 2026-10-24 07:00 PDT

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Resolved

(none)