Files of record
The board
A warning is a next rung that has not occurred. A watch is a standing topic with a bar. Capabilities bound whether fired indicators can produce the outcome. Intent is usually the assumption; the files say so on each warning.
Warnings
| ID | Warned outcome | Likelihood | Window | I / D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | Russia opens a new ground axis in the north | W1a roughly even chance low W1b very unlikely low | through 2027-03-31 | 11 / 3 |
| W2 | Direct Russia–NATO military clash | W2 very unlikely low | through 2027-03-31 | 9 / 2 |
| W3 | PRC coercive military action against Taiwan | W3a unlikely low W3b very unlikely low W3c very unlikely low | through 2027-12-31 | 13 / 3 |
| W4 | Sustained disruption of the advanced chip supply chain | W4a unlikely low W4b roughly even chance low | through 2027-12-31 | 8 / 2 |
| W5 | Government restriction on open-weight AI models or local inference | W5 unlikely low | through 2027-12-31 | 6 / 1 |
| W6 | Iran/Gulf: dual-chokepoint energy cutoff, Iran–Saudi war, or NPT withdrawal | W6a roughly even chance low W6b unlikely low W6c unlikely moderate | through 2027-12-31 | 14 / 5 |
| W7 | US diesel export embargo | W7 likely moderate | through 2026-10-23 | 5 / 3 |
Watches
| ID | Topic | Bar (first test) |
|---|---|---|
| T1 | Ukraine war | Change of control of an operationally significant town, line, or crossing, confirmed by geolocated evidence or by both sides. |
| T2 | Taiwan and the Western Pacific | Taiwanese domestic politics that change defense policy, budgets, or cross-Strait posture. |
| T3 | Semiconductor supply chain | Process-node, packaging, or memory milestones reaching volume production, or slipping, at any leading producer. |
| T4 | Significant AI events | A capability result that is new in kind, with a reproducible evaluation or independent replication: sustained autonomous work, automated research and engineering, novel science,… |
| T5 | Quantum computing | Error correction: logical qubits below threshold at increasing code distance, logical gate operations, growth in logical qubit count, with a paper or data. |
| T6 | US/Israel–Iran war and the Gulf | Change in Hormuz commercial transits or in the blockade's scope, with a tracking source or an official order. |
| T7 | Arctic and northern maritime routes | New security, basing, or investment-veto agreements covering Greenland or other Arctic territory, with a text, a date, or a head-of-government announcement. |
| T8 | US homeland: immigration enforcement and legal-immigration policy | A death in an ICE/CBP encounter or in an anti-ICE protest, or regular US armed forces deployed for immigration enforcement. |
| T9 | Korean Peninsula | Fire across the Military Demarcation Line, or a DMZ/MDL incident with casualties that ROK JCS, MND, UNC, or USFK attributes as a hostile act. |
| T10 | Plausibly deniable industrial accidents (sabotage-team activity) | A cluster: three or more such events in 30 days in one country, or three or more in 30 days against the same infrastructure class (energy, rail, ATC/telecom, ports, chemicals, u… |
| T11 | US–Canada trade rupture | Canadian oil or potash redirected to a third country (especially the PRC) as replacement for lost US share. |
| T12 | US Western Hemisphere cartel-military campaign | Acknowledged US land combat in Mexico or Venezuela, or operations without host-nation consent. |
| T13 | Drone, TBM, and C-UAS capability development | A named system, effector, or scale that is new for that actor: organic swarm, TBM C-UAS effector, CCA/loyal wingman, program-of-record fielding, or a stated inventory or product… |
| T14 | TCO kinetic/drone capability (Western Hemisphere) | Government-acknowledged new class, scale, or effector for a named TCO: payload weight, FPV/OWA, RF-hopping or fiber, or lift at or above about 150 lb, with the actor's own relea… |
Scored forecast
Time-bounded claims frozen at issuance. A warning’s live rung can move during the window; the scored card does not. Resolution is binary on the warned outcome inside the window.
Kyle 2026-09-23: W7 is the first real-world test of GUARDIAN STAR predictive capabilities. A miss at window close is a process failure, not “likely misses sometimes.” Miss → retool (after-action and framework changes in the same turn), not a log line and a lowered rung.
Open a card when a warning is issued at likely or higher with a window of 30 days or less, or when Kyle marks a call as scored.
Open
F1 — W7 US diesel export embargo inside 30 days
Frozen: 2026-09-23
Claim: The US administration imposes a full or partial ban, embargo,
or equivalent export restriction on diesel fuel by proclamation, IEEPA /
DOE / Commerce order, or a completed floor vote (W7 warned outcome /
W7-I4) on or before 2026-10-23.
Issued likelihood: likely, moderate confidence
Source of the call: FO Early Warning 23 Sep (R.C.), adopted as W7
Window: 2026-09-23 through 2026-10-23, America/Los_Angeles (FO 23 Sep:
“likely within the next 30 days”; WARNINGS.md window).
Hit: W7-I4 fires inside the window. Resolve immediately; do not wait
for close. No retool from this test.
Miss: 2026-10-23 ends without I4. Congressional calls, cabinet
studies, the president’s urging, voluntary refiner cuts, SPR / heating-oil
actions, and a gasoline-only restriction are not a hit.
On miss (Kyle 2026-09-23): retool prediction frameworks. Apply W7-D3.
Do not treat as within-error-bar. Write the after-action and the
framework changes in the same turn (skill: scored-forecast resolution).
Status: open
Resolution job: cron W7/F1 window close (job id omitted), 2026-10-24 07:00 PDT
Resolved
(none)
Source files
- warnings.htmlfull WARNINGS.md
- watches.htmlfull WATCHES.md
- capabilities.htmlfull CAPABILITIES.md
- forecasts.htmlfull FORECASTS.md
- observation.htmlone public-source log entry (Mi-8 / W2-I1)
- source/WARNINGS.mdmarkdown
- source/WATCHES.mdmarkdown
- source/CAPABILITIES.mdmarkdown
- source/FORECASTS.mdmarkdown
- source/SOUL.mdmarkdown