# Guardian Star — Scored forecasts

Time-bounded claims frozen at issuance. A warning's live rung can move
during the window; the scored card does not. Resolution is binary on the
warned outcome inside the window.

Kyle 2026-09-23: W7 is the first real-world test of GUARDIAN STAR
predictive capabilities. A miss at window close is a process failure,
not "likely misses sometimes." Miss → retool (after-action and
framework changes in the same turn), not a log line and a lowered rung.

Open a card when a warning is issued at **likely** or higher with a
window of 30 days or less, or when Kyle marks a call as scored.

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## Open

### F1 — W7 US diesel export embargo inside 30 days

**Frozen:** 2026-09-23
**Claim:** The US administration imposes a full or partial ban, embargo,
or equivalent export restriction on diesel fuel by proclamation, IEEPA /
DOE / Commerce order, or a completed floor vote (W7 warned outcome /
W7-I4) on or before 2026-10-23.
**Issued likelihood:** **likely**, moderate confidence
**Source of the call:** FO Early Warning 23 Sep (R.C.), adopted as W7
**Window:** 2026-09-23 through 2026-10-23, America/Los_Angeles (FO 23 Sep:
"likely within the next 30 days"; WARNINGS.md window).
**Hit:** W7-I4 fires inside the window. Resolve immediately; do not wait
for close. No retool from this test.
**Miss:** 2026-10-23 ends without I4. Congressional calls, cabinet
studies, the president's urging, voluntary refiner cuts, SPR / heating-oil
actions, and a gasoline-only restriction are not a hit.
**On miss (Kyle 2026-09-23):** retool prediction frameworks. Apply W7-D3.
Do not treat as within-error-bar. Write the after-action and the
framework changes in the same turn (skill: scored-forecast resolution).
**Status:** open
**Resolution job:** cron `W7/F1 window close` (job id omitted), 2026-10-24 07:00 PDT

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## Resolved

(none)